Y i p p p p e e e e !
The real revolution starts. Nissan are set to manufacture both the Leaf car and batteries in the UK: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8573724.stm
Maddeningly, every time a new electric option is announced there seem always to be comments like “How can it be green? Where do you think the electricity comes from – it comes from fossil fuel powered generating systems ” or “What good is a 100 miles range, my car can go 600 miles, it would take ages to recharge and get to Scotland from Devon…”
Why do so many people simply think only one or 2 steps forward?
Lets take a couple of pretty uncontentious points and work from there:
- People want to have personal transport and will not give it up without a fight.
- As yet there is insufficient infrastructure to produce all energy from renewable.
- Large scale use of fossil fuels will peak, become very expensive and finally end.
- Energy supplies can come from myriad sources, geothermal, nuclear, wind, solar, wave etc
Simply put, we all want or need ‘cars’. Petrol/diesel will become too expensive as it becomes more difficult to extract, move and refine. Demand for energy will change the economics of renewable and nuclear. We just won’t be able to afford to use petrol/diesel in cars so that choice won’t be there.
Currently people are clearing rain forests and growing vast ethanol and oil producing crops to try and grow the fuel. You can’t. With growing population, loss of fresh water and dessertification of previously cultivated land, there just isn’t the available land mass for that type of use too.
Current global annual oil use takes something in the order of 3 million years of plant growth and time to produce. The 60 secs of filling a 45l tank full of fuel represents the entire output of a 25MW power station. That rate of use simply can’t be produced organically (small ‘o’) based on existing or imagined agricultural techniques.
So how do we get from fossil fuel personal transport to some other form? You need a form of energy that is easy to transform to kinetic energy and is efficient. Ideally it should be simple to move, relatively efficient, safe, understood and created from what ever local energy sources happen to be available. If some one knows of anything better than electricity please do comment and let me know.
OK so lets take as a given that for now, we need to use electricity as the form of power. As far as the car or the distribution system is concerned it is not bothered where that electricity is from. Fossil, nuclear, renewable etc. The investment in the one and largely extant infrastructure will deal with everything from the point of generation to it use.
As to carbon emissions, where do you think it is most efficient to capture carbon and improve efficiency? At 200 power stations or 40 million vehicles? Fossil fuel use in cars will reduce the time we can use fossil fuels massively.
The numbers bandied about for carbon emissions and savings are so difficult to validate I think it is best to simply consider the systems relative efficiency rather than tie dubious accounting principles to it all.
From what I understand about general physical principles:
- The conversion efficiency of ICE (internal combustion engine) is about 20%.
- Electric motors convert 80% or more from electricity to kinetic.
The ICE would deliver 5MW of locomotive power per 25MW put in. Electric could power 4 cars for the price of one in energy terms alone. As far as the basic premise goes, the electric car is the only solution. The issue is not whether to use electric vehicles, it’s all about how to store the power it needs.
The main storage options are batteries, super-capacitors (none yet), fuel cells or direct supply (inductive/contact transmission like trams). I don’t care which ‘wins’ it is in fact irrelevant to the main point. Whatever wins will do so because it works best in a given situation.
Most people do about 30-50miles per day sometimes you do 300+ but that is rarer than people imagine. A long journeys in the UK is likely to be 150-200miles out and then the same back again. Most people will likely be doing something at the destination for some hours. During those hours a good deal of the battery’s power could be replaced. Batteries and fuel cells right now can hold charge to do that type of journey. More and faster would probably be better.
The other issue is the cost and life of the batteries or other storage system. Nothing lasts forever and that applies to batteries in electric cars. However, they probably will last 5-10 years at good efficiency depending on the use cycles. How long do most ICEs last? Batteries generally would not suddenly stop working, they would become less able to hold the full charge. So instead of a 100 mile range, eventually it would reduce a little each charge cycle. Many comments are really about the time the battery loses the 100%-90% capacity not when down to the 10% mark which could be many years more.
Even when the batteries are dead or past best efficiency, they are virtually entirely recyclable meaning lithium and most of the rare metals etc. can be recovered. They can also be recovered from all those tech devices and phones people still throw away. When there are billions of batteries in use, recycling them will be a real industry and they will carry a value. This could result in reduction of mining demand and the power of the countries holding the mineral rights. You wont be throwing dead lithium batteries away, you will probably part exchange/sell them.
Leasing batteries is where the car industry expect to make a profit. They could get to a point where they emulate the ink jet market, cost price car that works only with our batteries… With recycling and longer life batteries it will make sense for them. We may not like it but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen (at least to begin with) and doesn’t mean they shouldn’t do it. We need to move on from fossil fuels to energy efficient transport that we may just be able to supply from renewables. The road to get to electric won’t be straight or level, it has a full life cycle all it’s own to play out.
This whole thing also allows us to think about home power generation in a slightly better way. One of the big arguments against small/micro generation is that it is intermittent and we don’t have the ability to store it. It either goes back to the grid or has to be wasted or lost through a heat generator. With an electric car it doesn’t, as we will have a four wheeled mobile storage system. Using the power in the car or perhaps to provide energy back to the house. Sharing micro generation capital costs amongst neighbours may also make sense.
Even if people were on grid, most would charge their cars overnight ready for the next morning. Which could help to smooth the power demand curve from power stations by using it at times of current minimum demand.
I wrote this blog entry because so often the standard troll yarns about ‘CO2 is the same as it’s all fossil fuel anyway’ or that ‘electric cars are not good enough’ irritates me. It is neither accurate, logical or reasonable and unfortunately it is rarely confronted or contested. It is convenient bull for those who don’t wish to confront life and make stuff better.
I am no eco-maniac nor ego-maniac. I don’t want a hair-shirt or a designer one. I just think the inefficiency in the way we transport ourselves is mad. Capitalism or Socialism? I don’t care. Let’s just be smart, efficient and improve our lives and at the same time put some real fun back in to getting things done better.
After all, a Leaf that can get itself ready for you when you call on the mobile? How cool is that!